Weekly Economic Update

Summit Brokerage Weekly Economic UpdateCPI SHOWS ANNUAL DEFLATION

Dipping 0.7% in January, the Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index posted a 0.1% annual retreat – its first yearly decline since 2009. As the core CPI rose 0.2% in January and gas prices are moving north, the headline CPI’s stint in deflation territory may be short-lived. The federal government also announced its second estimate of Q4 GDP last week – a passable 2.2% – and a 2.8% boost in hard goods orders for January.1,2

 

HOUSEHOLD CONFIDENCE DECLINES

The Conference Board’s monthly survey of consumers slipped 7.4 points in February to a reading of 96.4. At the end of January, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index reached 98.1; the final February index came in lower at 95.4.2,3

 

PENDING HOME SALES, HOME PRICES RISE

The National Association of Realtors said housing contract activity increased 1.7% in January, and December’s S&P/Case-Shiller index showed a 4.5% overall annual increase in existing home prices. The Census Bureau noted an 0.2% dip in new home sales in January, however; the NAR found resales falling 4.9% in that month.2,4

 

FEBRUARY WAS FANTASTIC FOR STOCKS

Look at these monthly gains: S&P 500, 5.49%; Dow, 5.64%; Nasdaq, 7.08%. Last week, the S&P lost 0.27% and the Dow 0.04% while the Nasdaq rose 0.15%. Final numbers: DJIA, 18,132.70; Nasdaq, 4,963.53; S&P, 2,104.50. Oil fell 1.32% to $49.27 on the NYMEX, gold rose 1.21% to $1,213.60 on the COMEX.5,6

 

THIS WEEK: ISM’s January manufacturing index appears Monday, plus January’s consumer spending report and earnings from Progressive, NutriSystem and Molycorp. On Tuesday, the Street examines earnings from Best Buy, AutoZone, Smith & Wesson, Revlon, Bob Evans, TiVo and Dick’s Sporting Goods, and Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen speaks on bank regulation in New York. Wednesday brings February’s ADP employment change report, a new Beige Book from the Federal Reserve, ISM’s February services index and earnings from Abercrombie & Fitch, American Eagle, Korn/Ferry, PetSmart, Jamba, Tribune Publishing, Scripps Co. and H&R Block. February’s Challenger job cuts report arrives Thursday along with the latest bank stress test results from the Fed, new initial claims numbers and a report on January factory orders; earnings roll in from Chesapeake Utilities, Marcus & Millichap, Costco, Martha Stewart Living, Fresh Market, Quiksilver and Kroger. The Labor Department’s February employment report comes out Friday, as well as earnings from Foot Locker, BigLots! and Staples.

 

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +1.74 +11.43 +15.12 +6.84
NASDAQ +4.80 +14.92 +24.35 +14.19
S&P 500 +2.21 +13.49 +18.11 +7.49
REAL YIELD 2/26 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.24% 0.49% 1.48% 1.70%

 

Sources: online.wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 2/27/155,7,8,9,10

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

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Citations.

1 – tinyurl.com/pn4rvqe [2/26/15]

2 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [2/27/15]

3 – investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320 [2/27/15]

4 – usnews.com/news/business/articles/2015/02/25/us-new-home-sales-barely-nudge-up-in-january [2/25/15]

5 – markets.wsj.com/us [2/27/15]

6 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/commodities/commodities.asp [2/27/15]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F27%2F14&x=0&y=0 [2/27/15]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F27%2F14&x=0&y=0 [2/27/15]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F27%2F14&x=0&y=0 [2/27/15]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F26%2F10&x=0&y=0 [2/27/15]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F26%2F10&x=0&y=0 [2/27/15]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F26%2F10&x=0&y=0 [2/27/15]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F28%2F05&x=0&y=0 [2/27/15]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F28%2F05&x=0&y=0 [2/27/15]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F28%2F05&x=0&y=0 [2/27/15]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [2/27/15]

9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [2/27/15]

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