Recently, economists have worried about a decline in household spending. The 0.8% fall for retail sales in January affirmed their anxieties. Consumers have certainly been buying less fuel, but even with gas purchases removed, there was still an 0.2% retreat. Headline retail sales have now sunk for consecutive months; earlier Commerce Department data showed an 0.9% falloff in December.1
HOUSEHOLD SENTIMENT INDEX DECLINES
Did the rough weather blasting much of the nation affect the reading of the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment index? Quite possibly. The final January edition came in at an 11-year high of 98.1, but February’s initial edition fell to 93.6 – and per region, the major declines came in the Midwest and Northeast.1
OIL ENDS THE WEEK WITH A RALLY
Rising 3.1% in a day, WTI crude settled at $52.78 a barrel on the NYMEX Friday. Over on the COMEX, silver rose 3.6% on the week to $17.29 while gold slipped 0.6% across five days to $220.127.116.11
S&P 500 CLOSES AT A NEW RECORD HIGH
Thanks to a 2.02% weekly ascent, the index settled at 2,096.99 Friday. Rising crude prices and signs of economic improvement in the euro area helped. Those factors also assisted the Dow and Nasdaq: the former gained 1.09% on the week, the latter 3.15%. Friday brought a close of 4,893.84 for the Nasdaq, 18,019.35 for the Dow.3
THIS WEEK: U.S. stock and bond markets are closed Monday for Presidents’ Day, but eyes will be on Europe as Greece formally asks to renegotiate its bailout. On Tuesday, earnings roll in from MGM Resorts, Goodyear, Medtronic, Waste Management, Norwegian Cruise Line, Agilent, Fossil, Jack in the Box, and Bridgestone. Wednesday, Wall Street looks at the minutes from the January Federal Reserve policy meeting, the latest Producer Price Index, data on January industrial output, building permits and housing starts and earnings from Fluor, Duke Energy,, Hilton, Avis Budget Group, SolarCity, Virgin America, Hyatt Hotels, Marathon Oil, Healthstream, Denny’s, Barrick Gold, Marriott and Garmin. The Conference Board’s January index of leading indicators arrives Thursday, plus a new initial claims report, earnings from Nestle, Wal-Mart, Priceline, Hormel, DirecTV, Boise Cascade, Clear Channel, Novatel, Noble Energy, Six Flags Entertainment, Newmont Mining, Public Storage and Nordstrom … and for the first time ever, minutes from a European Central Bank meeting (January 22). Friday sees earnings from Choice Hotels and Deere.
|% CHANGE||Y-T-D||1-YR CHG||5-YR AVG||10-YR AVG|
|REAL YIELD||2/13 RATE||1 YR AGO||5 YRS AGO||10 YRS AGO|
|10 YR TIPS||0.34%||0.56%||1.46%||1.54%|
Sources: online.wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 2/13/154,5,6,7
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
1 – tinyurl.com/pfjbxc4 [2/13/15]
2 – proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/59878/gold-gains-05-to-1227-wti-rises-31-to-5278-59878.html [2/13/15]
3 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [2/13/15]
4 – markets.wsj.com/us [2/13/15]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F13%2F14&x=0&y=0 [2/13/15]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F13%2F14&x=0&y=0 [2/13/15]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F13%2F14&x=0&y=0 [2/13/15]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F12%2F10&x=0&y=0 [2/13/15]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F12%2F10&x=0&y=0 [2/13/15]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F12%2F10&x=0&y=0 [2/13/15]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F14%2F05&x=0&y=0 [2/13/15]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=2%2F14%2F05&x=0&y=0 [2/13/15]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=2%2F14%2F05&x=0&y=0 [2/13/15]
6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [2/13/15]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [2/13/15]