Commerce Department data showed retail sales jumping 0.7% for November – the best monthly advance recorded in a year. More good news came from the University of Michigan – its initial December consumer sentiment index came in at 93.8, way up from 88.8 at the end of last month. The improvement may reflect relief at falling gas prices as well as added belief in the economy.1
WHEN WILL OIL HIT BOTTOM?
Last week saw the International Energy Agency lower its estimates for 2015 global oil demand, and so NYMEX crude for January delivery finished Friday’s trading day at just $57.81 a barrel. At Friday’s close, oil was down 12.94% MTD and 25.90% over the past 30 days. COMEX gold futures, on the other hand, were up 4.75% MTD and settled at $1,222.50 Friday.2,3
WHOLESALE PRICES DIP
The Producer Price Index is yet another indicator affected by cheap oil. It declined 0.2% in November, taking the annualized gain down to 1.4%. The core PPI was flat last month and up 1.8% in a year.1
CRUDE PRICES DRAG DOWN STOCK PRICES
Bears freely roamed Wall Street last week, with a major selloff occurring Friday. In fact, December 8-12 represented the worst week for the Dow since 2011. The 5-day losses across the major indices were severe: DJIA, 3.78% to 17,280.83; S&P, 3.52% to 2,002.33; NASDAQ, 2.66% to 4,653.60.2,4
THIS WEEK: On Monday, VeriFone reports Q3 results. Tuesday offers a report on November housing starts and building permits and earnings from Darden Restaurants. Wednesday is busier: the Federal Reserve makes a policy statement, the November CPI and the latest euro area CPI arrive, and Carnival, Oracle, FedEx, General Mills and Jabil Circuit report earnings. Thursday, earnings from Rite Aid, Winnebago Industries, Nike, Accenture, Red Hat and ConAgra Foods complement a new report on initial jobless claims. Friday, BlackBerry reports earnings.
|% CHANGE||Y-T-D||1-YR CHG||5-YR AVG||10-YR AVG|
|REAL YIELD||12/12 RATE||1 YR AGO||5 YRS AGO||10 YRS AGO|
|10 YR TIPS||0.46%||0.75%||1.41%||1.65%|
Sources: online.wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 12/12/145,6,7,8
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
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This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
1 – investing.com/economic-calendar/ [12/12/14]
2 – proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/58785/dow-drops-over-300-pts-to-end-worst-week-in-3-years-58785.html [12/12/14]
3 – money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [12/12/14]
4 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [12/12/14]
5 – markets.wsj.com/us [12/12/14]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F12%2F13&x=0&y=0 [12/12/14]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F12%2F13&x=0&y=0 [12/12/14]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F12%2F13&x=0&y=0 [12/12/14]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F11%2F09&x=0&y=0 [12/12/14]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F11%2F09&x=0&y=0 [12/12/14]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F11%2F09&x=0&y=0 [12/12/14]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F13%2F04&x=0&y=0 [12/12/14]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F13%2F04&x=0&y=0 [12/12/14]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F13%2F04&x=0&y=0 [12/12/14]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/12/14]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/12/14]