Weekly Economic Update

Summit Brokerage Services Weekly Economic UpdateRETAIL SALES REBOUND FROM SEPTEMBER SLUMP

The 0.3% October gain announced by the Commerce Department exactly offset the September decline. Below the headline number, core retail sales (minus auto buying) also rose 0.3% last month. Sales increased in 11 of 13 categories; online retailers saw a 1.9% boost to lead the pack. Annually, overall retail sales were up 4.1% from last October.1,2

 

MOOD OF U.S. HOUSEHOLDS BRIGHTENS

November’s initial University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 89.4 on Friday – the best reading since July 2007. This represents a return to normal, in a sense – the index averaged a reading of 89 in the five years preceding the Great Recession. Economists polled by Bloomberg had anticipated only a minor rise to 87.5 from the final October mark of 86.9.1

 

CRUDE, GOLD & SILVER RALLY ON FRIDAY

Rising 2.1% on the COMEX trading day, gold ended the week at $1,185.60 an ounce, its best price since October 30. Silver futures climbed 4.4% Friday to a close of $16.31. NYMEX crude settled at $75.20, up 1.4% on the day with some investors sensing that OPEC may move to reduce output.3

 

S&P 500 SEES FOURTH STRAIGHT WEEK OF GAINS

Across five trading days without any momentous market swings, the index rose another 0.39% to a Friday settlement of 2,039.82. The Nasdaq (+1.21% to 4,688.54) and Dow (+0.36% to 17,634.74) also advanced during the week.4,5

 

THIS WEEK: Monday, Urban Outfitters and Tyson Foods report quarterly results; the Federal Reserve’s report on October industrial output also arrives. October’s Produce Price Index comes out Tuesday, plus earnings from Home Depot, TJX, PetSmart and La-Z-Boy. Minutes from last month’s Federal Reserve policy meeting appear on Wednesday, along with earnings from Keurig Green Mountain, Lowe’s, Target, J. M. Smucker, L Brands, Staples and Williams-Sonoma; additionally, the Census Bureau issues its report on October housing starts and building permits. Thursday, Wall Street considers the October Consumer Price Index, the October edition of the Conference Board’s leading indicator index, data on October existing home sales and earnings from Best Buy, Perry Ellis, Gap Inc. and Dollar Tree. Nothing major is scheduled for Friday.

 

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +6.38 +11.08 +14.34 +6.72
NASDAQ +12.26 +18.02 +23.25 +12.39
S&P 500 +10.36 +13.92 +17.31 +7.23
REAL YIELD 11/14 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.43% 0.51% 1.31% 1.67%

 
Sources: online.wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/14/145,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

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This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

Citations.

1 – bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-14/michigan-u-s-consumer-sentiment-index-rises-to-89-4-from-86-9.html [11/14/14]

2 – haver.com/ [11/14/14]

3 – proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/58175/gold-rallies-21-to-end-at-1185-wti-gains-14-to-7520-58175.html [11/14/14]

4 – fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=96804df6-0d9b-49b8-bc32-679c8bfed2c9 [11/14/14]

5 – markets.wsj.com/us [11/14/14]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F14%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/14/14]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F14%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/14/14]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F14%2F13&x=0&y=0 [11/14/14]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F13%2F09&x=0&y=0 [11/14/14]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F13%2F09&x=0&y=0 [11/14/14]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F13%2F09&x=0&y=0 [11/14/14]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F15%2F04&x=0&y=0 [11/14/14]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F15%2F04&x=0&y=0 [11/14/14]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F15%2F04&x=0&y=0 [11/14/14]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/14/14]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/14/14]

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