Weekly Economic Update

Summit Brokerage Services Weekly Economic UpdateJOBLESS RATE DECLINES TO 5.9%

Unemployment lessened another 0.2% in September as firms added 248,000 new workers to their payrolls. The nation hasn’t seen joblessness of less than 6% since July 2008. In presenting its latest report, the Labor Department also revised summer hiring totals: the August job gain went from 142,000 to 180,000, and the July gain went from 212,000 to 243,000. The U-6 rate (underemployed & unemployed) also fell 0.2% last month to 11.8%, a 71-month low.1

 

ISM GAUGES DIP

In September, the Institute for Supply Management’s factory PMI retreated to 56.6 from the prior 59.0. Its service sector PMI also pulled back, with a reading of 58.6 compared to 59.6 in August. Analysts polled by MarketWatch had anticipated both indices descending to 58.5, but both September readings indicate strength.2

 

PENDING HOME SALES DOWN 1.0% FOR AUGUST

For four out of the previous five months, the National Association of Realtors had reported increases in the number of Americans signing contracts to buy homes. Is this dip a hint of a cooler housing market this fall? In other real estate news, July’s S&P/Case-Shiller home price index showed an overall 6.7% annualized.

CONSUMERS SPEND MORE, WITH LESS CONFIDENCE

Personal spending rose 0.5% for August, according to the Commerce. Yet the Conference Board consumer confidence index took an unexpected September slip, falling 7.4 points to 86.0.3

A CHOPPY START TO THE NEW QUARTER

Volatility is definitely back: big swings characterized the market last week. The Dow fared best, losing 0.60% to settle at 17,009.69 Friday. The NASDAQ (-0.81% to 4,475.62) and S&P 500 (-0.75% to 1,967.90) saw slightly larger descents.4

THIS WEEK: Earnings season begins: Family Dollar kicks things off Monday evening, and Tuesday brings Q3 results from Yum! Brands. Wednesday, the minutes from the September Federal Reserve policy meeting will be released, complementing earnings from Alcoa, Costco, Ruby Tuesday, Safeway and Monsanto. Thursday offers the latest initial jobless claims numbers, August wholesale inventories data and Q3 results from PepsiCo; additionally, a G20 meeting begins in Washington, D.C. Friday, earnings arrive from Fastenal and Infosys.

 

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +2.61 +13.42 +15.86 +6.65
NASDAQ +7.16 +18.58 +23.70 +12.92
S&P 500 +6.47 +17.23 +18.39 +7.34
REAL YIELD 10/3 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.52% 0.43% 1.54% 1.86%

Sources: online.wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 10/3/145,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

 

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This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

Citations.

1 – tinyurl.com/lynbsnf [10/3/14]

2 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic  [10/3/14]

3 – investing.com/economic-calendar/ [10/3/14]

4 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [10/3/14]

5 – markets.wsj.com/us [10/3/14]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F3%2F13&x=0&y=0 [10/3/14]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F3%2F13&x=0&y=0 [10/3/14]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F3%2F13&x=0&y=0 [10/3/14]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F2%2F09&x=0&y=0 [10/3/14]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F2%2F09&x=0&y=0 [10/3/14]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F2%2F09&x=0&y=0 [10/3/14]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F4%2F04&x=0&y=0 [10/3/14]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F4%2F04&x=0&y=0 [10/3/14]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F4%2F04&x=0&y=0 [10/3/14]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [10/3/14]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [10/3/14]

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