Weekly Economic Update

Summit Brokerage Services Weekly Economic UpdateSUMMER SPENDING SPREE LIFTS RETAIL SALES

They increased 0.6% in August, easing some anxieties about a possible slowdown in personal spending. Core retail sales (which exclude auto, gas, food, and home improvement purchases and more closely match the consumer spending aspect of GDP) improved 0.4% last month, and were up 4.1% year-over-year. The Commerce Department also revised July’s headline retail sales gain up to 0.3%.1

CONSUMER SENTIMENT HITS A 14-MONTH PEAK

At a reading of 84.6, September’s preliminary Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was 2.1 points above its final mark for August. Not only that, it advanced to its highest level since July 2013. Household income expectations also hit their highest level in almost six years.1

GOLD DESCENDS AGAIN, OIL SLUMPS ON IEA FORECAST

Settling Friday at $1,231.50, the precious metal fell 2.8% last week on the COMEX, undercut by dollar strength. Silver posted the same weekly loss, ending the week at $18.55. After the International Energy Agency reduced its 2015 world demand forecast for oil, NYMEX crude slipped 0.6% Friday to settle at $92.27.2

 

INVESTORS WAIT, WONDER WHAT FED WILL SAY

Bulls took a breather last week, mulling whether recent economic indicators might lead the Federal Reserve to issue a slightly more hawkish policy statement this Wednesday. Across five trading days, the S&P 500 retreated 1.10% to 1,985.54, the NASDAQ 0.33% to 4,567.60 and the Dow 0.87% to 16,987.51.3

 

THIS WEEK: On Monday, investors will consider data on August factory output in the U.S. and China. Tuesday offers the August Producer Price Index as well as Q3 earnings from Adobe Systems. Wednesday, the Fed wraps up its September policy meeting and the August Consumer Price Index appears; Wall Street will also parse earnings news from General Mills, Lennar and FedEx. Thursday, Census Bureau data on August building permits and housing starts accompany the latest initial jobless claims figures and earnings from Oracle, Red Hat, Rite Aid, Pier 1 Imports, Cintas and ConAgra Foods. Friday, the Conference Board presents its August leading economic indicator index and G20 finance ministers and central bankers meet in Australia.

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +2.48 +11.02 +15.37 +6.47
NASDAQ +9.36 +22.92 +23.90 +13.91
S&P 500 +7.42 +17.95 +18.08 +7.64
REAL YIELD 9/12 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.49% 0.81% 1.59% 1.81%

 

 

 

Sources: online.wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 9/12/144,5,6,7 

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

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This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

Citations.

1 – reuters.com/article/2014/09/12/usa-economy-retail-idUSL1N0RD0OS20140912 [9/12/14]

2 – proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/56782/gold-logs-5-day-slump-wti-drops-06-at-9227–56782.html [9/12/14]

3 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [9/12/14]

4 – markets.wsj.com/us [9/12/14]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F12%2F13&x=0&y=0 [9/12/14]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F12%2F13&x=0&y=0 [9/12/14]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F12%2F13&x=0&y=0 [9/12/14]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F11%2F09&x=0&y=0 [9/12/14]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F11%2F09&x=0&y=0 [9/12/14]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F11%2F09&x=0&y=0 [9/12/14]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F13%2F04&x=0&y=0 [9/12/14]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F13%2F04&x=0&y=0 [9/12/14]

5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F13%2F04&x=0&y=0 [9/12/14]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [9/12/14]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [9/12/14]

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