They increased 0.6% in August, easing some anxieties about a possible slowdown in personal spending. Core retail sales (which exclude auto, gas, food, and home improvement purchases and more closely match the consumer spending aspect of GDP) improved 0.4% last month, and were up 4.1% year-over-year. The Commerce Department also revised July’s headline retail sales gain up to 0.3%.1
CONSUMER SENTIMENT HITS A 14-MONTH PEAK
At a reading of 84.6, September’s preliminary Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was 2.1 points above its final mark for August. Not only that, it advanced to its highest level since July 2013. Household income expectations also hit their highest level in almost six years.1
GOLD DESCENDS AGAIN, OIL SLUMPS ON IEA FORECAST
Settling Friday at $1,231.50, the precious metal fell 2.8% last week on the COMEX, undercut by dollar strength. Silver posted the same weekly loss, ending the week at $18.55. After the International Energy Agency reduced its 2015 world demand forecast for oil, NYMEX crude slipped 0.6% Friday to settle at $92.27.2
INVESTORS WAIT, WONDER WHAT FED WILL SAY
Bulls took a breather last week, mulling whether recent economic indicators might lead the Federal Reserve to issue a slightly more hawkish policy statement this Wednesday. Across five trading days, the S&P 500 retreated 1.10% to 1,985.54, the NASDAQ 0.33% to 4,567.60 and the Dow 0.87% to 16,987.51.3
THIS WEEK: On Monday, investors will consider data on August factory output in the U.S. and China. Tuesday offers the August Producer Price Index as well as Q3 earnings from Adobe Systems. Wednesday, the Fed wraps up its September policy meeting and the August Consumer Price Index appears; Wall Street will also parse earnings news from General Mills, Lennar and FedEx. Thursday, Census Bureau data on August building permits and housing starts accompany the latest initial jobless claims figures and earnings from Oracle, Red Hat, Rite Aid, Pier 1 Imports, Cintas and ConAgra Foods. Friday, the Conference Board presents its August leading economic indicator index and G20 finance ministers and central bankers meet in Australia.
|% CHANGE||Y-T-D||1-YR CHG||5-YR AVG||10-YR AVG|
|REAL YIELD||9/12 RATE||1 YR AGO||5 YRS AGO||10 YRS AGO|
|10 YR TIPS||0.49%||0.81%||1.59%||1.81%|
Sources: online.wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 9/12/144,5,6,7
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
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1 – reuters.com/article/2014/09/12/usa-economy-retail-idUSL1N0RD0OS20140912 [9/12/14]
2 – proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/56782/gold-logs-5-day-slump-wti-drops-06-at-9227–56782.html [9/12/14]
3 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [9/12/14]
4 – markets.wsj.com/us [9/12/14]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F12%2F13&x=0&y=0 [9/12/14]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F12%2F13&x=0&y=0 [9/12/14]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F12%2F13&x=0&y=0 [9/12/14]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F11%2F09&x=0&y=0 [9/12/14]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F11%2F09&x=0&y=0 [9/12/14]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F11%2F09&x=0&y=0 [9/12/14]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F13%2F04&x=0&y=0 [9/12/14]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F13%2F04&x=0&y=0 [9/12/14]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F13%2F04&x=0&y=0 [9/12/14]
6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [9/12/14]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [9/12/14]